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Take-profit and stop-loss for tennis trading: how to set them

Updated on 6 min readBy Marius, founder of 77 Tennis

A take-profit sells your position once it's made the profit you were aiming for. A stop-loss sells it when the loss reaches the most you're willing to lose. In tennis, set both before you trade, base them on the score rather than round numbers, and expect stops to fill a little past your level, because prices jump on breaks. Here's how to choose the levels, with examples.

Why you need both

Most people who lose money trading tennis don't lose it on one bad call. They lose it by holding losing trades too long and selling winning ones too early. A take-profit and a stop-loss fix both problems, because you decide your exits while you're calm, not in the middle of a tense tiebreak.

  • A take-profit stops you giving back a good gain when the match turns.
  • A stop-loss stops a small loss turning into a total loss.

How they work

There are two ways to set them, and it's worth knowing which one you're using.

  • As a price. "Sell if Player A reaches 75¢" or "sell if A drops to 50¢".
  • As a dollar amount. "Sell when I'm up $10" or "sell when I'm down $5".

They're the same thing seen two ways. If you hold 50 shares bought at 62¢, a price of 75¢ is a profit of $6.50 (50 × 13¢), and a price of 50¢ is a loss of $6.

On the 77 Tennis demo you set them in dollars. You can set them on each position, or on your whole account so everything sells when your combined profit or loss reaches a level. The board checks them about every 18 seconds and sells at the price it sees at that moment.

On Polymarket itself, a take-profit can be a limit order to sell at your price, which waits on the order book until someone buys. As far as I know there's no built-in stop-loss order there at the time of writing, so a stop means watching the price and selling yourself.

Why stops fill late in tennis

Tennis prices don't move smoothly. They jump on breaks, sets and injuries. So a stop at 50¢ doesn't mean you'll sell at exactly 50¢. If one break of serve takes the price from 54¢ to 44¢, the first price available might be 44¢.

This happens on real markets, and on the demo too, because it only checks every 18 seconds. Two ways to live with it:

  • Expect to lose a bit more than your stop, and size your trade so that's fine.
  • Think about the score, not just the number. For example, decide to sell if your player goes down a break in the second set, rather than waiting for the price to hit a level after the damage is done.

Choosing the levels

The best levels come from the match, not from round numbers. Ask yourself: "What would have to happen for my reason to buy to be wrong?" That's your stop. Then ask: "What would a good result look like?" That's your take-profit.

Your reason for buyingTake-profit ideaStop-loss idea
Your player was broken and you expect a break backNear the price before the breakIf they're broken again or the set slips away
You think the favourite is underpriced before the matchAfter they win the first setIf they fall a break behind in the first set
Your player is on top and should close out the setWhen the set is wonIf they're broken back

Worked example

Player A is a favourite at 67¢ before the match. You buy 30 shares for $20.10.

Using my match model as a guide, if A wins the first set their price should be around 85¢. If A loses it, around 38¢. Those two numbers frame your exits.

  • Take-profit at 83¢: 30 shares × 16¢ is a $4.80 profit. On the demo you'd set a take-profit of +$4.80.
  • Stop-loss at 55¢: 30 shares × 12¢ is a $3.60 loss. On the demo, a stop-loss of -$3.60. This gets you out if A falls behind in the first set, before the set is lost.

If the stop fills late, at 51¢ say, the loss is $4.80. Plan for that as the realistic worst case, and remember an even bigger jump is possible.

So you could win $4.80 or lose somewhere between $3.60 and $4.80. That's only worth doing if you think A wins the first set clearly more often than not. The profit calculator shows the numbers for any trade.

Risk and reward

Compare what you could win with what you could lose. If your take-profit is worth $5 and your stop-loss costs $5, you need to be right more than half the time to make money, and a little more once costs are counted. If your take-profit is worth $10 and your stop $5, you only need to be right a third of the time to break even.

Wider take-profits sound better, but they're hit less often. There's no free lunch here. What matters is being honest about how often each one really happens, and tracking your trades on the demo's My trades page is the best way to find out.

One level for the whole account

If you trade several matches at once, an account-wide level is a useful safety net. On 77 Tennis you can set a total take-profit or stop-loss for all your open positions together. When your combined profit or loss reaches it, everything is sold, and the setting clears so it doesn't fire again on new trades. It's a simple way to say "I'm done for today" in advance.

Common mistakes

  • Moving the stop. When the price gets close to your stop, it's tempting to move it lower. That's how a small loss becomes a big one.
  • Stops that are too tight. If your stop is 2¢ away, ordinary point-by-point swings will hit it. Give the trade room for a normal game.
  • No take-profit. Without one, a winning trade can turn into a losing one when the match swings.
  • Ignoring the set. A stop at 50¢ means something very different in the first set than in a deciding set. Why the price jumps on a break of serve shows how much the set matters.

Simple rules to start with

  1. Set both levels before you buy.
  2. Put the stop-loss where your reason for buying is clearly wrong.
  3. Make the take-profit at least as big as the stop-loss.
  4. Never move the stop further away once you're in.
  5. Review every trade afterwards.

If you want a strategy to try these on, trading the break of serve uses exactly this setup. If you're new, the beginner's guide covers the basics first.

FAQ

Should I always use a stop-loss?

For most people, yes. It's the simplest way to stop one bad trade doing real damage. If you choose not to use one, keep the trade small enough that losing all of it is fine.

Why did my stop-loss sell below my level?

Because tennis prices jump. If a break of serve takes the price straight past your level, the first sale available is at the new, lower price. On the demo, levels are also only checked about every 18 seconds.

Is a take-profit the same as a limit order?

Close. On a real market, a limit order to sell at your price works like a take-profit. It waits on the order book until someone buys at that price.

Can I set a take-profit and stop-loss on the whole account?

On 77 Tennis, yes. You can set a total level for all your open positions, and everything sells when your combined profit or loss reaches it.

Demo only. 77 Tennis uses demo money with no cash value. Nothing here is financial or betting advice. Prices come from Polymarket's public tennis markets, and I'm not affiliated with Polymarket. Prediction markets aren't legal everywhere, so check the rules where you live. If trading stops being fun, stop.

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